DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z WED 26/03 - 06Z THU 27/03 2003
ISSUED: 25/03 21:01Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN IBERIA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NORWAY

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FRANCE, THE SOUTHERN BENELUX, AND PARTS OF GERMANY

SYNOPSIS

WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE, EXCEPT IBERIA WHERE A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT AND FAR NORTHERN EUROPE.

DISCUSSION

...WESTERN IBERIA...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE STABLE AT MOST PLACES. FAR SOUTHERN SPAIN MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE SOMEWHAT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST SO THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. ELSEWHERE IN IBERIA SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR, BUT WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AFTER 00Z UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN MODERATE BACKGROUND WINDFIELD SOME HIGH GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED NOT TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

...NORTHERN NORWAY...
AN UNSTBLE POLAR AIR MASS HAS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST IN THIS AIR MASS, SO THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE THUNDERY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ON TROUGH PASSAGES WHERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, OVERALL THREAT SEEMS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK.

...NORTHERN FRANCE, SOUTHERN BENELUX AND PARTS OF GERMANY...
A BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS SUSTAINED BY SUBTLE DYNAMICAL FORCING. AS DIURNAL HEATING WARMES THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITHIN THIS BAND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

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